A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
